NBA FINALS : Heat vs. Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat, as far as the conference finals go, couldn't have taken two more different paths to the NBA Finals. 

In a series many expected to go the distance, Gregg Popovich's squad steamrolled the Memphis Grizzlies, not even opting for the gentleman's sweep. It took two overtime battles, but Tony Parker and the Spurs looked transcendent in their four Western Conference finals victories.

Before the playoffs started, a veteran NBA scribe joked that, among the many teams that had no chance to beat Miami, the Spurs had the best chance.

Even that was debatable. While the defending champions were rolling into the postseason on an epic 37-2 hot streak, the Spurs split their final 20. Picking them to win the West at that point had as much to do with Russell Westbrook’s season-ending injury as anything they’d done over the previous six weeks.

Now the Finals are upon us, and the two teams remain on different plateaus. But the roles are now reversed.

The Spurs are the ones making short work of their opponents, having dropped two games in three rounds en route to their first Finals appearance in six years.

The Heat, meanwhile, were underwhelming against depleted Chicago in the second round before Indiana pushed them to the maximum seven games in the Eastern Conference finals.

They finished the Pacers off with a dominant 99-76 victory in Monday’s Game 7, showing once again they have a gear no other team in the NBA can reach. If that wasn’t enough proof, witness their utter dismantling of the league’s top-ranked defense in Game 3. But neither of those routs can erase the questions that arose from their uneven performance over the course of the series.

Dwyane Wade’s energy level, sapped by a bruised knee that won’t heal until the end of the playoffs, remains inconsistent. Chris Bosh is mired in one of the worst slumps of his career. Shane Battier, a key in last year’s title run, has played so poorly that he was the lone Heat player not to see action on Monday, and the rest of their supporting cast outside of Chris Andersen hasn’t been significantly better.

Yet the Heat still have LeBron James, the four-time MVP and best player on the planet, and homecourt advantage. They’ll rely heavily on both against a veteran Spurs team that will have had nine days to rest, refocus and plot their course of action in pursuit of the fifth championship in franchise history.

The schedule

Game 1: at Miami, 8 p.m. Thursday
Game 2: at Miami, 7 p.m. Sunday
Game 3: at San Antonio, 8 p.m. June 11 (Tuesday)
Game 4: at San Antonio, 8 p.m. June 13 (Thursday)
*Game 5: at San Antonio, 7 p.m. June 16 (Sunday)
*Game 6: at Miami, 8 p.m. June 18 (Tuesday)
*Game 7: at Miami, 8 p.m. June 20 (Thursday)

* If necessary

The season series (Heat won 2-0)

Nov. 29, at Miami: Heat 105, Spurs 100
March 31, at San Antonio: Heat 88, Spurs 86

The paths

Spurs: 1st rd – L.A. Lakers, 4-0; 2nd rd – Golden State, 4-2; West finals – Memphis, 4-0.
Heat: 1st rd – Milwaukee 4-0, 2nd rd – Chicago 4-1, East finals – Indiana 4-3

The stats (playoffs)

	Off. rating	Def. rating	Effective FG%	Opp. eFG%	Def. reb %	Off. reb %	Turnover %	Opp. TO %	FT/FG rate	Opp. FT/FG
Spurs	106.5	95.4	51.3	45.6	72.8	22.0	12.6	14.8	0.251	0.246
Heat	108.4	97.6	52.0	46.9	69.9	25.8	15.1	18.4	0.350	0.343

The matchups

Center

Tim Duncan presents a significantly different challenge than Indiana’s Roy Hibbert, who overpowered Miami with his size and strength. He’s a finesse player at this point, more comfortable lofting elbow jumpers than dominating down on the block. Nor can Duncan match Hibbert’s physical presence as a rim protector. Yet he’s got to be all but licking his chops to get his hands on the willowy Bosh, who has missed 26 of his last 34 field-goal attempts and has grabbed double-digit boards in just two of his past 34 outings.

Power forward

Tiago Splitter has seen his production drop off during the playoffs, and it could dip even further against a Heat team that defends pick-and-roll men better than any team in the league. But he’ll have filled his role if he can continue marshaling the paint with Duncan — a key task against the likes of James and Wade. Udonis Haslem remains a respectable role player with a decent outside shot, but Heat coach Erik Spoelstra typically prefers to use this spot as a Swiss Army position in his “Space and Pace” offense.

Small forward

The most fascinating matching of the series, pitting a living legend at the peak of his powers against arguably the best young defensive wing in the game, Kawhi Leonard. James averaged 29 points per game in the Eastern Finals to make short work of another candidate for that crown, Indiana’s Paul George. Limiting him to similar numbers will be the greatest challenge Leonard has faced in his two NBA seasons. He’ll also need to maintain his customary accuracy from long range to help spread the floor for Tony Parker.

Shooting guard

Wade is struggling through the worst playoffs of his career, averaging just 13.6 points — 10.3 fewer than his career postseason average — on 44.8-percent shooting. He was a mediocre outside shooter even at his best, presenting what would seem to be a one-dimensional matchup for Danny Green. Yet Wade’s athleticism, however diminished it might be, could present problems for a rangy defender who doesn’t always respond well to strength. Green’s 3-point stroke (42.9 percent) continues to be an important weapon for the Spurs.

Point guard

Just as the Spurs must contend with James, the Heat will have to figure out how to slow down Parker. The All-Star floor general has recaptured his midseason form, setting a career-high with 18 assists in Game 2 of the Western Conference finals before finishing the Grizzlies off with 37 points in the clincher. Keeping him out of the paint is perhaps Miami’s top — and toughest — priority. Miami’s Mario Chalmers is a point guard in name only. His main job is hitting spot-up 3s, a task at which he’s largely failed in the playoffs (32.4 percent).

Bench

Spurs coach Gregg Popovich continues to play a deep bench, with five reserves averaging at least 10 minutes in the postseason. Manu Ginobili’s shooting woes persist, but his ability to run the offense and contribute in unexpected ways remains hugely valuable to the Spurs. Matt Bonner could have a big role against Miami’s small lineups. Veteran sharp-shooter Ray Allen is Miami’s fourth-leading scorer in the postseason, somewhat offsetting the disappearance of Battier. The energetic Andersen and Norris Cole have also been effective.

Coaching

Miami’s Erik Spoelstra remains hugely underrated by some parties, probably because he has the privilege of coaching James. Far from rolling out the ball, however, he’s good with adjustments and isn’t afraid of thinking outside the box. Sounds a lot like Popovich – minus three championship rings and more than a decade’s worth of experience. The wily veteran will have had more than a week to prepare for the Finals, and that’s got to be a scary proposition for a Heat team that will have barely caught their breath after the Eastern finals.

The key points

* The Heat rank No. 1 in the league against the pick and roll per Synergy Sports, and have generally had success guarding Parker in recent seasons. (12, 18, 18 and 15 points in four games dating back to 2011.) More of the same will be necessary to hold off the Spurs. Don’t be surprised to see Wade and even James get key minutes on Parker, whose penetration is the key to everything the Spurs do offensively.

* They might not have much choice in the matter, but the Spurs could be best served by letting James get his while clamping down on his supporting cast. Like the Spurs with Parker, Miami is at its best when he’s slicing to the rim and kicking out to open shooters. The Heat, who were second in 3-point shooting at 39.6 percent, are 50-8 this season when they make at least 8 shots from beyond the arc.

* The Spurs have been fantastic on defense during the postseason, clamping down inside on the Lakers and Memphis and securing the 3-point line against Golden State. All three opponents were one-dimensional to varying degrees, however. They’ll have to combine elements of both gameplans to defend the Heat, who rank in the top seven in 10 of 11 play types charted by Synergy and first overall.

The pick

Making a definitive prediction involving the Heat — dominant one night, vulnerable the next — feels like an exercise in futility at this point.

But, as they showed with their statement victory on Monday, they aren’t ready to relinquish their crown just yet. Nor will the battle-hardened Spurs, in what might be the last title run of the Duncan era, go down without giving the Heat everything they can handle.

With Hall of Famers peppering each roster and history at stake for both teams, it looks to be one of the most compelling Finals matchups in recent seasons. And as Duncan said himself in the hours before they advanced, the Heat are defending champions until proven otherwise.

Heat in 7.